Year-End/New-Year Travel Trends Dec. 23, 2005 ~ Jan. 3, 2006

For the First Time in Five Years Overseas & Domestic Travelers and Average
Expenditures All Increase.
Europe, N.America & Oceania Power Second Annual Increase in Travelers.
Okinawa, Kyushu and Hokkaido are Popular Domestic Destinations.
Departures are Being Delayed Until the New Year.
Note: NH stands for National Holiday. When one falls on a Sunday, the Monday is given off instead.
JTB Corp. has just released the projection of travel trends for those taking trips with at least one night away from home during the 12-day year-end/New-Year season (Dec. 23, 2005 to Jan. 3, 2006 on a departure basis). Estimates were based on a questionnaire survey of 2,200 travelers, bookings with JTB offices, airline reservations, and industry trends. This year marks the 37th such survey since the first in 1969. Results are shown below.
Table 1: Projections
For Immediate Release
December 15, 2005
(Translation of Japanese Release No.100)
12/23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1/1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
NH
Sa Su M
Tu W Th
F
Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su NH Tu
------ Period covered by the survey (on a departure basis) ------

Projected for 2005/2006
Year-end/New Year
Change from Prev.
Year
Figures for 2004/2005
Year-end/New Year
Total Number of Travelers
29,736,000
+1.3%
29,358,000
Domestic Travelers
29,112,000
+1.3%
28,739,000
Overseas Travelers
624,000
+0.8%
619,000
Avge. Domestic Expenditure
¥35,162/$293
+ 2.0%
¥34,472/$287
Avge. Overseas Expenditure
¥203,392/$1,695
+ 3.8%
¥195,923/$1,633
Total Expenditure on Travel
¥1,150.5bn/$9.59bn
+ 3.5%
¥1,112.0bn/$9.27bn
Domestic Travel
¥1,023.6bn/$8.53bn
+ 3.3%
¥990.7bn/$8.26bn
Overseas Travel
¥126.9bn/$1.06bn
+ 4.6%
¥121.3bn/$1.01bn
Average Length of Trip
3.8 days
+ 0.2
3.6 days
Notes 1:
Average expenditures are calculated per person, per journey.
Notes 2:
Overseas expenditure is projected from the JTB average of overseas travel expenditure. (Excludes locally purchased souvenirs, etc.)
Notes 3:
Dollar amounts calculated, for information only, at a nominal rate of ¥120/US$.

Characteristics of Year-End/New-Year Travel
1.
There Will be More Travelers, Both Domestic and Overseas, than Last Year.
The number of domestic travelers is put at 29.11 million (up 1.3% on the year) and that of overseas travelers at 624,000 (similarly up 0.8%), which should take the overall total to 29.74 million (up 1.3%).
The year-end/New-Year holiday will generally run for the four days from Saturday Dec. 31 through Tuesday Jan. 3. Despite the fact that the unfavorable sequence of days, similar to last year, would seem to make longer journeys less likely, better corporate results and higher bonuses, etc., give the first encouraging prospects for some time, and more people are expected to travel both within Japan and overseas, and to take longer trips. Questionnaire respondents expressing an intention to travel increased by 0.9 percentage points over last year, showing strong motivation to travel. The appended table of "Reasons for Not Traveling," (Table 6) shows fewer people citing "Home budget restrictions" (3.1 percentage points down from last year) and "The economy is in recession" (1.0 percentage point down). This year's trends are as follows:
More Will Be Leaving for Overseas in the New Year. Although the sequence of holidays is unfavorable, the number of those going overseas is showing healthy trends. In addition to the usual year-end peak, more overseas travelers are choosing to depart in the New Year, and this is increasing the total over the year-end/New-Year period. This year is also characterized by a large number of travelers who are taking holidays to link up with the national holiday on January 9 (Coming of Age Day), and use the long break to visit more remote destinations in Europe, N.America, etc. More Remote Destinations Within Japan Are Also Popular. The questionnaire revealed that more Japanese were traveling to Hokkaido (7.7%, up 1.9 percentage points), Kyushu (10.1%, up 1.1pts) and Okinawa (3.2%, up 1.5pts). Travel to more remote destinations is proving popular.
2.
Increases in the Cost and Duration of Travel.
Average expenditures, at ¥35,162 ($293), promise to be up 2.0% on the year for domestic travel and, at ¥203,392 ($1,695), up 3.8% for overseas travel.
The slight increase expected for average domestic expenditures is attributed to the popularity of more remote destinations and longer trips. For overeas travel, in addition to the popularity of more remote destinations there is an additional effect from the surcharges made for higher fuel costs, and expenditures will increase. However, if we deduct the effect of the surcharges, the increase for overseas travel is only 0.8%.
The average length of trips, thanks to the preference for more remote destinations both within Japan and overseas, will increase slightly by 0.2 of a day to 3.8 days.
The influence of increases in the numbers of travelers and in average expenditures is expected to take the total spent to ¥1,150.5bn or $9.59bn (a rise of 3.5%), the first such rise for five years.

For Immediate Release
December 15, 2005
(Translation of Japanese Release No.100)

3.
Clearer Reasons for Traveling--or Not Traveling
Respondents to the questionnaire with clear intentions both to travel and not to travel increased. Those expressing vaguer intentions ("Probably will go" and "Probably won't go") both decreased. It appears that those wishing to travel at the year-end/New-Year period tend to examine carefully the sequence of holidays, the cost of travel, the situation at the destinations, make a deliberate decision where they will go, and actively implement their travel plans.

Overseas Travel Characteristics
Despite the Unfavorable Sequence of Holidays, Remoter Destinations Do Well...
This year, like last, the unfavorable sequence of holidays did not seem to give much encouragement for increases in travel to more remote destinations, but demand for travel to such destinations in Europe, Oceania and N. America, etc., is strong, see Table 2. Europe is showing noticeable increases in January departures. Since 2000, Coming of Age Day has been celebrated on the second Monday in January, and it looks as if a consistent pattern has developed of taking days off linked to this national holiday and making use of the comparatively lower charges that prevail then to take longer holidays. In comparison with year-end travel, these travelers show sensitivity to cost performance and changing attitudes to taking days off, and they take good advantage of the lower air fares that come into effect with the New Year.
Top-selling Italy is the most popular destination for year-end/New-Year travel. Scandinavia and Eastern Europe are more popular this year, too. Unique destinations that are also popular include Africa and the Middle East (Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Dubai). These appear to be chosen as places to escape the cold, and to be selected by more experienced travelers, so we can expect these new destinations to come into the spotlight for year-end/New-Year travel.
In the United States, the West Coast is more popular than it has been for some time thanks to the influence of the Disneyland 50th anniversary celebrations.
Asia is More Popular with Those Exploring Towns on Foot.
In Asia, there were fears that the remaining influence of the Tsunami on Phuket and of terrorist attacks on Bali Island would cause a large fall in travelers to these two major beach resorts, but the fall over the year-end/New-Year priod has been less than expected. On the other hand, the decline has been at least partially compensated for by the popularity of tourism to cities with beautiful night-time illuminations lilke Singapore, Hong Kong, Bangkok and Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh and Hanoi).
Until now, Asia was virtually synonymous with the popularity of its beach resorts, but here we see a realization that its cities are attractive to explore on foot.
A Double Peak in Departures.
With the consistent New Year departures for overseas destinations, there are two departure peaks. As usual, the larger peak will be on December 29 & 30, and this year it will be joined by January 2 & 3, when many departures for overseas are concentrated.

For Immediate Release
December 15, 2005
(Translation of Japanese Release No.100)

Reference: Destinations Attracting the Most Travelers
(Note: More details for this year are provided in the accompanying table.)
Survey Methodology
Issued by:
Corporate Communication Division
JTB Corp., 2-3-11 Higashi Shinagawa,
Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo 140-8602 JAPAN
Phone: 03-5796-5833, Fax: 03-5796-5848.

For mail address change/addition/deletion,
please contact Mr. S. Sakaguchi
mail:
s_sakaguchi512@jtb.jp

For Immediate Release
December 15, 2005
(Translation of Japanese Release No.100)


2005/2006
2004/2005
Destination Numbers Destination Numbers
1st
Korea
85,000
China
88,000
2nd
Europe
78,000
Korea
87,000
3rd
China
73,000
Europe
75,000
Survey locations : Some 200 locations throughout Japan
Survey timing
: November 4 through 14, 2005
Respondents
: Individuals of both genders, aged 15 through 79
Size of sample
: 2,200 respondents
Selection
: Multi-level,
stratified,
random
Response rate
: 54.1%
Survey content
: Travel involving at least one night away from home with
departures between December 23, 2005, and January 3, 2006 (including overseas travel but excluding commercical or other business travel).
Methodology
: Individual
interviews

Table 2 Trends in Numbers of Travelers (Dec. 23, 2005 - Jan. 3, 2006)
For Immediate Release
December 15, 2005
(Translation of Japanese Release No.100)

(units, thousands) Some duplication

2005/2006
2004/2005
% of Prev. Year
Totals
624.0
619.0
100.8%
Asian Subtotal
336.0
341.0
98.5%

Korea
85.0
87.0
97.7%
China
73.0
88.0
83.0%
Hong Kong
33.0
32.0
103.1%
Taiwan
41.5
36.0
115.3%
Thailand
41.0
35.0
117.1%
Singapore
16.0
15.0
106.7%
Indonesia
13.0
16.0
81.3%
Malaysia
7.5
7.0
107.1%
Others
26.0
25.0
104.0%
North American Subtotal
48.0
46.0
104.3%

US Mainland
41.5
40.0
103.8%
Canada
6.5
6.0
108.3%
Hawaii
61.0
60.0
101.7%
Guam, Saipan
52.0
51.0
102.0%
European Subtotal
78.0
75.0
104.0%
S. Pacific Subtotal
40.5
38.0
106.6%

Australia
30.0
28.0
107.1%
New Zealand
7.0
7.0
100.0%
S. Pacific Islands
3.5
3.0
116.7%
Others (Middle East, Africa, Latin America)
8.5
8.0
106.3%