Note: The effects of the 2011 Tohoku-Pacific Ocean Earthquake are not yet incorporated
in these supply plans.
Outline of Supply Plans for FY2011
(Non-consolidated)
Mar-11
Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd.
Table of Contents
Introduction
1. Gas penetration plan
2. Gas sales volume plan
3. Production/purchasing volume and feedstock use plan
4. Major facility plan
5. Capital investment plan
Introduction
Natural gas is expected to play an important role in the realization of a low-carbon
society with its environmentally friendliness, with shifting to natural gas being clearly
indicated in the national Basic Energy Plan. It addition, natural gas offers high supply
stability because of its diversified supply source and strong value chain. It is also an
economical and user-friendly energy source which has the ability to cope with such
diversified demands as on-site power generation. Backed by these benefits, we can
foresee no change in its superiority and importance, and expect the needs for this source
of energy to continue expanding among both individual customers and societies.
Meanwhile, we are observing the emergence of changes in our business climate that
could exert a major impact on the execution of the Tokyo Gas Group’s Integrated Energy
Business Strategy. These changes include intensified energy competition among energy
sources including electricity, and changes in the conditions surrounding gas resource
procurement due to the steep rise in crude oil prices, and the rise in global energy
demands of mainly emerging countries.
In January 2009, the medium-term Group management plan for FY2009-2013 was
prepared with the objectives to respond to these changes in the business environment
both promptly and appropriately, and to more vigorously promote our Integrated
Energy Business Strategy. The management plan also calls for steps to strengthen the
LNG value chain and reinforce the synergy of "All Tokyo Gas"* in order to achieve these
goals.
Through action on this agenda, we desire to simultaneously further the penetration and
expansion of natural gas use based on even higher levels of added value, while widening
and deepening Group business in the energy field, so that we will be able to respond
flexibly to future changes in the business climate and to achieve sustainable growth.
The effects of the 2011 Tohoku-Pacific Ocean Earthquake are not yet incorporated in
these supply plans.
* All Tokyo Gas is a collective term for Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd., its affiliated companies, and
its cooperating companies.
1. Gas penetration plan
For the next 5 years, the average number of newly connected customers is expected to
be about 180,000/ year. We foresee an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent in our
customer base over the next five years, projecting a customer base of 10.984 million by
the end of FY2015.
(Unit: thousand customers)
FY2010 outlook FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 CAGR (2010-2015)
Number of new customers 170 173 181 184 183 179 1.0%
Total number of customers 10,440 10,552 10,661 10,771 10,881 10,984 1.0%
* Total number of customers = number of gas meters installed
2. Gas sales volume plan
In observing the gradual recovery of the economy, the plan foresees the total gas sales
volume of Tokyo Gas in FY2011 to exceed that of FY2010, and the expected sales volume
for FY2012 and subsequent years to gradually grow mainly in the industrial sector as a
result of steady economic growth and the increasing awareness in environmental issues.
As a result, we expect the total gas sales volume of the company to reach about 15.2
billion m3 in FY2015. As a result, the projected average annual growth rate over the
five-year period would be projected at 2.7 percent.
(Unit: Million m3; 45MJ/m3)
FY2010 outlook FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 CAGR
Total gas sales volume 13,271 13,371 13,772 14,307 14,801 15,186 2.7%
* Figures for FY2010 are projections following standardization (correction for
temperature in the formulation of FY2011 plans and those for subsequent years). Note
that this also applies to these figures for the rest of this document.
(1) Residential demand
In this sector, the amount of sales per customer is in decline due to such factors as the
reduction in the number of family members per household, a rise in the share of
collective residential properties with high levels of air tightness and insulation, and the
penetration of high-efficiency gas equipment. The trend of excess population influx into
the Tokyo metropolitan area is expected to moderately continue, and the company is
committed to efforts for the cultivation of new demand and the penetration and
expansion of its leading edge equipment and systems. The company is expecting its
residential gas sales volume in FY2015 to be 3.4 billion m3.
【Residential gas sales volume】
(Unit: Million m3; m3/customer/year; 45MJ/m3)
FY2010 outlook FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 CAGR (2010-2015)
Residential gas sales volume 3,376 3,378 3,381 3,387 3,392 3,392 0.1%
Gas sales volume per customer 385 381 378 376 374 372 ▲0.7%
(2) Industrial demand
This sector accounts for the largest share of the total gas sales of the company. The sales
volume in this sector is expected to grow as a result of the development of large-lot
demands for the expansion of our business to a wider area, and the shift from other
fuels due to the effects of national energy policy. For these reasons, the company is
expecting its FY2015 industrial gas sales volume to be 6.8 billion m3.
【Industrial gas sales volume】
(Unit: Million m3; 45MJ/m3)
FY2010 outlook FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 CAGR (2010-2015)
Industrial gas sales volume 4,887 4,990 5,400 5,902 6,484 6,849 7.0%
Proportion of large-lot gas sales volume (4,768) (4,871) (5,273) (5,775) (6,358) (6,724) (7.1%)
(3) Commercial and other demand
The sales volume in this sector is expected to grow with efforts to maintain and expand
the existing demand, and to capture additional demand through the reinforcement of
solution proposals to harness the company''s engineering expertise and the active
introduction of high-efficiency gas equipment. FY2015 sales volume is expected to be 2.8
billion m3.
【Commercial and other gas sales volume】
(Unit: Million m3; 45MJ/m3)
FY2010 outlook FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 CAGR
Commercial and other gas sales volume 2,818 2,770 2,774 2,778 2,784 2,789 ▲0.2%
Proportion of large-lot gas sales volume (1,399) (1,388) (1,392) (1,399) (1,407) (1,413) (0.2%)
(4) Wholesale gas demand
We are expecting the gas volume of sales to other gas utilities/marketing companies in
FY2015 to be 2.2 billion m3, taking into account the trends in industrial demand among
wholesale customers.
【Wholesale gas volume】
(Unit: Million m3; 45MJ/m3)
FY2010 outlook FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 CAGR (2010-2015)
Wholesale gas volume 2,191 2,233 2,216 2,240 2,141 2,156 ▲0.3%
3. Production/purchasing volume and feedstock use plan
In working toward the stable procurement of gas resources and further reductions in
procurement costs based on long-term contracts, we aim to heighten flexibility in our
procurement by engaging in upstream business development and through the
utilization of short-term business transactions to cope with changes in demand.
【Gas production and purchasing volume】
(Unit: Million m3; 45MJ/m3)
FY2010 outlook FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015
Natural gas
LNG 12,778 12,719 13,003 13,475 13,877 14,016
Domestic natural gas 206 202 232 237 242 248
Petroleum oil
LPG 402 388 480 539 626 866
Offgas 104 110 110 110 110 110
Other
Biogas 0 1 1 1 1 1
Total 13,490 13,420 13,826 14,362 14,856 15,241
[Gas resource/ fuel use volume]
(Unit: 1,000t)
FY2010 outlook FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015
LNG 10,089 10,006 10,221 10,593 10,900 10,988
LPG 336 331 409 459 534 738
4. Major facility plan
Tokyo Gas will improve and reinforce its production and supply infrastructure to more
accurately respond to its projected gas demands.
We plan to complete the Shin-Negishi Trunk Line (Yokohama City), the 2nd Phase of
the Yokohama Trunk Line (Yokohama City – Kawasaki City), the Chiba – Kashima
Trunk Line (Chiba City – Kamisu City), and the Saito Trunk Line (Soka City – Koga
City) to offer even greater stability of our supply systems in order to meet increases in
future demand.
The plans also call for the installation of vaporizers in the three terminals located on
Tokyo Bay and the construction of the No.4 LNG tank in the Ohgishima Terminal.
In addition, Tokyo Gas will respond to the natural gas expectations and needs of its
customers and society as a whole over the medium and long term, while further
solidifying its foundations for a stable supply. To this end, Tokyo Gas will promote the
early execution of construction plans for an LNG terminal in the Hitachi District of
Ibaraki Port and the Ibaraki – Tochigi Trunk Line to connect the area to its existing
pipeline network.
[Major pipeline plans]
Planned commercial use | Name | Section | Inner diameter (mm) | Total extended length (km)
Apr. 2011 Fujioka receiving pipeline Fujioka City, Gunma Prefecture 100 0.1
Mar. 2012 Chiba-Kashima Line Between Chiba City (Wakaba-ku) and Kamisu City 600 79.3
Mar. 2012 Kashima District high-pressure distribution pipeline Kamisu City, Ibaraki Prefecture 300 0.9
Oct. 2013 Shin-Negishi Trunk Line Between Isogo-ku and Izumi-ku in Yokohama City 600 14
Oct. 2013 Yokohama Trunk Line (2nd phase) Between Aoba-ku in Yokohama City and Aso-ku in Kawasaki City 750 6.3
Oct. 2015 Saito Trunk Line Between Soka City and Koga City 600 39.6
FY2015 Ibaraki - Tochigi Trunk Line Between Hitachi City and Moka City 600
[Year-end total length of pipelines] (Unit: km)
FY2010 outlook FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015
53,857 54,771 55,412 56,129 56,819 57,634
[Major production facilities plans]
Planned commercial use Installation location Facilities to be installed Number of units
Apr. 2011 Negishi LNG Terminal LPG vaporizer 1
Oct. 2011 Ohgishima LNG Terminal LNG/LPG vaporizer 1
Dec. 2012 Sodegaura LNG Terminal LNG vaporizer 2
Oct. 2013 Ohgishima LNG Terminal LNG storage tank 1
FY2015 Hitachi LNG Terminal LNG storage tank 1
FY2015 Hitachi LNG Terminal LPG storage tank -
FY2015 Hitachi LNG Terminal LNG/LPG vaporizer -
FY2015 Hitachi LNG Terminal LPG vaporizer -
5. Capital investment plan
Tokyo Gas plans to invest a total of 608.5 billion yen in its facilities (after the advanced
depreciation of contribution for construction) over the five-year period of the supply
plans (FY2011 - FY2015) as follows.
(1) Production facilities: the further reinforcement of stable production systems through
expansions of the LNG-related facilities in the three terminals on Tokyo Bay,
construction of the No.4 LNG storage tank in the Ohgishima Terminal, and through
systematic improvements and replacements of existing facilities.
(2) Supply facilities: the establishment of stable supply systems and safety assurance
through investment in safety facilities, including those for disaster prevention such as
in the case of an earthquake, while continuing with the planned replacement of existing
pipelines and investment in new pipelines to address new demand development and the
formation of a major pipeline network.
(3) Business facilities: the further reinforcement of business development systems
through improvements to information systems, the renovation of aged buildings, and
the promotion of technology development.
(4) Incidental business facilities: improvements to mainly existing facilities.
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